Which States will Legalize Marijuana Next?
Analysts predicted that 2019 would be a banner year for marijuana legalization at the state level – but change sometimes comes more slowly than predicted.
As summer approaches, and many state legislatures begin to wrap up their sessions, two states, Illinois and Vermont, seem poised to legalize the sale of marijuana to adults. At the same time legalization bills face roadblocks and delays in three states that once seemed certain to open recreational marijuana markets this year: New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico.
On May 4, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and Democratic leaders from both houses of the state legislature announced legislation to allow anyone over the age of 21 to buy marijuana from licensed dispensaries and to possess up to an ounce of marijuana. The bill will also clear the criminal records of many Illinois residents convicted of nonviolent marijuana offenses. With Democrats controlling both houses of the Illinois legislature, the bill is almost certain to pass.
Illinois will join Michigan as one of two states in the Upper Midwest to allow recreational marijuana sales. In nearby Minnesota, the Governor and the leadership of the House of Representatives support legalization, but the Senate leadership firmly opposes it.
Last year, Vermont’s legislature became the first in the nation to begin legalizing marijuana without a statewide referendum. The law gave Vermonters the right to grow marijuana for their own use, but stopped short of allowing its sale.
In March, by a veto-proof majority, Vermont’s State Senate passed a bill to allow licensed retailers to begin selling marijuana in July of 2021. A key committee in the states House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a modified version of the bill on May 2. The House version includes an amendment to allow police officers to subpoena saliva samples from divers suspected of being under the influence of marijuana, meeting Governor Phil Scott’s main objection to allowing retail sales.
At the beginning of the year, New Hampshire seemed certain to follow in the footsteps of Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maine in legalizing marijuana. The House of Representatives passed a legalization bill, and the Senate seems certain to approve it as well, but Governor Chris Sununu says he will veto the bill, and supporters in the House are 40 votes short of the 2/3 majority needed to override his veto.
Still, legalization enjoys widespread support in New Hampshire, with 80% of the state’s residents tax and regulating marijuana like tobacco. With neighboring states licensing marijuana dispensaries, New Hampshire legislators are likely to face increasing pressure from the business community to follow suit. The state’s first in the nation presidential primary will also put the issue font and center. With the notable exception of former Vice President, Joe Biden, the majority of Democratic candidates are strong and vocal supporters of legalization.
Marijuana advocates in New Jersey and New Mexico face a different problem than those in New Hampshire. Both states have governors that strongly support legalization but can’t convince their legislatures to go along.
In New Jersey, a dispute over how far to go in clearing the criminal records of people with old marijuana convictions initially delayed passage of a legalization bill. Political infighting about unrelated issues stands in the way of further progress in the legislature. Voters will most likely resolve the issue by passing a referendum next year.
New Mexico’s legislature passed bills reducing penalties for marijuana possession and expanding the state’s medical marijuana program, but rejected full legalization. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham vows to try again next year.
Despite some unexpected obstacles, more and more states are on the verge of legalizing marijuana.
– Seán O’Donoghue